IN FOCUS - Aug. 23, 2024

And then there were four.

Arizona’s presidential ballot is set, now that Democrats have formalized their nomination of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz, and other candidates either withdrew from the ballot (Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.) or failed to submit a complete nomination packet (Cornel West).

The shuffling means Arizona voters will have their choice of four White House tickets: Harris-Walz (Democrat); Donald Trump-JD Vance (Republican); Jill Stein (Green); and Chase Oliver-Mike ter Maat (Libertarian).

The exit of Kennedy and West frees up a small but potentially determinative number of supporters in a race won in 2020 by roughly 10,000 votes. Conventional wisdom suggests Trump will benefit most from the shakeup, especially with Kennedy issuing his endorsement of the former President.

Still unclear is what impact the remaining 3rd party candidates may have: Libertarians tend to appeal to conservative voters, and Greens appeal more to progressives. Notably, Arizona’s 2016 ballot also featured Democratic, Republican, Green and Libertarian contenders for President. That year, Libertarian Gary Johnson received more than 106,000 Arizona votes, and Green Party candidate Stein got over 34,000.