IN FOCUS - Aug. 9, 2024

Arizona is the center of the political universe as Vice President Kamala Harris and new running mate Tim Walz rally in west Phoenix.

Democrats packed Desert Diamond Arena this evening to hear from the Harris-Walz ticket. Energy on the Left is palpable … and now showing up in the polls as their candidate surges.

New Arizona polling released this week had the Democratic duo ahead of Donald Trump by 2.8 percentage points, and was the first survey in the past year (at least!) with Trump trailing in the race for Arizona’s 11 electoral votes. 

To be clear, the bulk of polling still favors Trump in the Grand Canyon State. Border security and the economy remain top concerns for voters and are issues voters say they trust Republicans to address. But a trend toward Harris-Walz has been unmistakable in the weeks since President Biden jettisoned his campaign. On Thursday, Cook Political Report shifted Arizona, Georgia and Nevada in its White House forecast from “lean Republican” to “toss-up.”

Still uncertain is whether the Harris boomlet will be lasting. The Democratic National Convention runs Aug. 19-22, and at that point there will be just 75 days until the General Election (fewer if you take into account the beginning of early voting).

Bank on this: today’s rally won’t be the last Arizona sees of the presidential tickets. Just like four years ago, our state is once again too close to call.