IN FOCUS - Nov. 1, 2024

We made it, Arizona. 

Election Day is almost here. Tuesday marks the end of a historic race that saw Donald Trump’s return to the political stage … President Biden’s withdrawal from the race … an assassination attempt (or two) … the history-making nomination of Vice President Kamala Harris … and too many other twists and turns to mention. Even at this late date, the race remains a coin flip.

What is clear is that a handful of battleground states - Arizona among them - will determine the next Commander-in-Chief.  

In Arizona, over 2 million ballots have already been cast - surpassing all ballots voted in 2016 and putting us on track to exceed 2020 total turnout, as well. Arizona Republicans continue to outpace Democrats in the early vote, meaning progressives need a surge of ballots returned this weekend and Tuesday or Election Day for them will be blue, indeed. 

The challenge for AZ Democrats is it appears their highest propensity voters have already returned ballots. Republicans, by comparison, have been turning out more new voters, meaning the AZGOP has a greater share of party regulars left to vote Tuesday.

The wild card (among many): independents. There are over 1.4 million of these Party Not Declared voters in Arizona, and nearly 550,000 have returned ballots already. How many more will vote? And will they swing left or right? The answer to those questions will likely determine which party claims victory in Arizona next week.