IN FOCUS - Nov. 15, 2024

Caucus and some committee leaders have been announced. Legislative staffing decisions are well underway. Bills are being formulated.

The 2025 Regular Session is nearly here.

What kind of session? Expect Republicans, emboldened with newly-expanded 33-27 (House) and 17-13 (Senate) majorities, to flex their muscle. Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs is likely to do the same, especially as she looks to bolster her progressive credentials in warding off a potential Primary challenge from Secretary of State Adrian Fontes and/or Attorney General Kris Mayes.

An early flashpoint likely involves election reforms, as Senate President Warren Petersen has already expressed interest in adopting Florida-style early-voting rules to enable quicker tabulation and results. Governor Hobbs quickly shot down the idea, saying she opposes any effort that infringes on voter convenience - including the practice by some voters to drop off their mail-in ballots on Election Day.

Legislators and the Governor may also clash on the extension of Prop 123, the Ducey-era measure that pumps nearly $300 million/year into Arizona K-12 schools. Prop 123 is scheduled to sunset in 2025, so the only way to avoid a fiscal dropoff is if legislators refer an extension to a statewide, special election ballot next year. The two sides weren’t far apart last year - the Governor wanted an extension package that would fund K-12 schools, teachers and support staff, while GOP legislators favored a plan targeting teacher pay. Political gravity suggests a deal will be reached in 2025, however. Nobody wants to be blamed for massive cuts to K-12 schools.

Other deals may be tougher to reach. Water? Housing? Border security? Infrastructure? Arizona’s policy wish list is long. We’ll soon find out what appetite our elective leaders have to reach agreement.