Veridus Advisory: Arizona General Election 2024 Update

Dear Clients:

Voter turnout was brisk on Election Day in Arizona, though operations ran smoothly with few long lines and no significant disruptions reported. The relative calm was welcome, as battleground Arizona is once again in the focus of national attention.

Hundreds of thousands of ballots remain uncounted at this hour, especially mail-in ballots returned over the weekend or walked into a polling place today. One trend appears clear, however: Arizona Republicans have a sizable turnout advantage that bodes well for Republican candidates from Donald Trump on down the ballot. But, it would be premature to call it a red wave - many races are too close to call, including U.S. Senate and House races to determine control of Congress.

The fate of the Arizona Legislature also hangs in the balance and is uncertain at this hour. Republicans have a 1-seat edge in the House and Senate, though Democrats have invested heavily in flipping both chambers.

An exception to the close races: ballot propositions. Most failed or passed by wide margins. Perhaps the highest-profile measure was Prop 139, an abortion legalization initiative that coasted to victory. 

Check here for the latest statewide results. Below are the Arizona races we’re watching, with results as of approximately 10:15 p.m. (MST) Tuesday.

Federal Races

President:

Donald Trump is leading Vice President Kamala Harris by less than 1 percentage point, though the race is expected to tilt his way as remaining GOP-heavy ballots are processed in the days ahead.

U.S. Senate:

Perhaps the Trump-Gallego voter really exists. Republican Kari Lake is significantly underperforming Trump, and trails the Democratic Congressman by about 6 points. 

CD-1: 

Way too close to call. Democrat Amish Shah is leading Congressman David Schweikert (R) by just under 2 points in this swing northeast Valley district, but plenty of ballots are yet to be counted.

CD-2: 

Congressman Eli Crane (R) appears safely ahead of Democratic challenger and former Navajo Nation leader Jonathan Nez.

CD-6: 

One of the surprises of the evening is that this rematch between GOP Congressman Juan Ciscomani and Democrat Kristen Engel is not - at this hour - as close as expected. Engel leads by 10 points, though this race may tighten as remaining ballots are processed.

Legislative Races

Arizona Senate:

LD-2 

Democrats and Rep. Judy Schwiebert are on-track to knock off GOP Sen. Shawnna Bolick and pick up this critical seat.

LD-4

State Sen. Christine Marsh (D) leads GOP challenger Carine Werner by 4 points.

LD-9 

Democratic Sen. Eva Burch leads by 7 points over Republican Robert Scantlebury in this 2022 rematch.

LD-13 

GOP state Sen. JD Mesnard narrowly leads Democratic challenger Sharon Winters.

LD-16 

GOP Sen. TJ Shope leads Democrat Stacey Seaman by nearly 8 points.

LD-17

Upset alert: Democrat John McLean leads GOP former legislator Vince Leach by 9 points.

Arizona House of Representatives (top two):

LD-2

“Single-shot” Democrat Stephanie Simacek leads and GOP Rep. Justin Wilmeth is on pace to claim the second seat. Republican Ari Daniel Bradshaw trails in third place.

LD-4

This is a pickup opportunity for Democrats as former Rep. Kelli Butler (D) and Democrat Karen Gresham lead GOP Rep. Matt Gress, though the race remains far too close to call.

LD-9

Democratic Reps. Lorena Austin and Seth Blattman are the top-two vote getters, with Republican Kylie Barber currently in third place. 

LD-13

This race is ultra tight. Democrat Brandy Reese narrowly leads the two Republicans, former legislator Jeff Weninger and incumbent Rep. Julie Willoughby.

LD-16

Republican Rep. Teresa Martinez leads, followed by Republican Chris Lopez and Rep. Keith Seaman, an incumbent Democrat. This is a pickup opportunity for the GOP.

LD-17

Democratic challenger Kevin Volk leads the nearest Republican, GOP Rep. Rachel Jones, by 7 points. Incumbent Rep. Cory McGarr (R) is in third place.

LD-23

Rep. Michele Peña (R) narrowly leads, followed by incumbent Rep. Mariana Sandoval (D) and Democrat Matias Rosales.

LD-27

This is a wide-open district with no incumbents. Republican Lisa Fink and Tony Rivero narrowly lead Democrat Deborah Howard.

Ballot Measures 

Prop 138

Voters handily defeated the Tipped Workers Protection Act. The measure would have enshrined Arizona’s tipping system in the state Constitution, and set the tip credit at 25% of minimum wage.

Prop 139

Arizonans voted overwhelmingly to enshrine the fundamental right to an abortion in the Arizona Constitution.

Prop 140

The citizen’s initiative to replace partisan primaries with open primaries is currently being defeated by nearly 20 points.

Prop 314

This border security measure is coasting to approval. Prop 314 makes it a state crime for any non-citizen to cross Arizona’s southern border outside a port-of-entry.

Prop 479

The half-cent Maricopa County sales tax for funding transportation is passing by 25 points.