Veridus Advisory: Arizona General Election 2024 Update #2

Dear Clients:

More votes were tallied overnight and through the day, changing the complexion of some races up and down the ballot. Generally, Republican candidates gained ground - as expected - with the continued processing of GOP-heavy ballot returns.

Preliminary key takeaways: Donald Trump appears headed for victory in Arizona, claiming the state’s 11 electoral votes on his way back to the White House; the U.S. Senate race remains too close to call; and the GOP is on-track to maintain narrow control of the Legislature.

Reportedly, there are just over 1 million ballots remaining statewide to be processed, verified and counted, of which an estimated 700,000 are from Maricopa County voters. These ballots include those mailed back early, as well as others mailed back over the weekend or dropped-off at a polling place on Tuesday. The tabulation process is likely to stretch well into next week and potentially beyond.

Check here for the latest statewide results. Below are the remaining races we’re watching, with results as of approximately 2 p.m. (MST) Wednesday.

Federal Races

President:

Donald Trump has expanded his lead over Vice President Kamala Harris to nearly 4 points. A victory in Arizona will only pad Trump’s electoral college margin as Harris has already conceded.

U.S. Senate:

Kari Lake has significantly eroded Democratic Congressman Ruben Gallego’s margin at this hour, but the GOP nominee still trails by a little under 3 points. The makeup of remaining Maricopa County ballots may be determinative in this race.

CD-1: 

Congressman David Schweikert (R) has reclaimed the lead by a percentage point over Democrat Amish Shah, though this race will remain one to watch closely.

CD-6: 

Republican Congressman Juan Ciscomani has made up significant ground and now is down by only a point and a half against Democrat Kristen Engel. This race will go down to the wire.  

Legislative Races

Arizona Senate:

LD-2 

GOP Sen. Shawnna Bolick has retaken the lead against Democrat Rep. Judy Schwiebert, and now is in front by a little under 34,000 votes.

LD-4

Democrat Sen. Christine Marsh’s lead over GOP challenger Carine Werner has dwindled to just 38 votes. This is a big GOP pickup opportunity, and the race is firmly in recount territory. 

LD-9 

Democratic Sen. Eva Burch has seen her lead shrink to less than 3 points against Republican Robert Scantlebury. It could still go either way.

LD-17

Democrat John McLean continues to lead GOP former legislator Vince Leach, but the margin is about 2,100 votes.

LD-23

Maybe the night’s biggest surprise. Democratic Sen. Brian Fernandez continues to hold off Republican challenger Michelle Altherr, though the difference is just 848 votes at this hour.

Arizona House of Representatives (top two):

LD-2

Democrat Stephanie Simacek continues to lead GOP Rep. Justin Wilmeth and 3rd place Republican Ari Daniel Bradshaw, though fewer than 2,000 votes separate the candidates.

LD-4

GOP Rep. Matt Gress has climbed back into 1st place in this battleground district. He is trailed by former Rep. Kelli Butler (D) and Karen Gresham (D).

LD-9

Democratic Reps. Lorena Austin and Seth Blattman have a narrow lead over Republican challengers Mary Ann Mendoza and Kylie Barber. 

LD-13

Republicans Jeff Weninger and Rep. Julie Willoughby have reclaimed the top spots in this swing district, and lead Democrat Brandy Reese by a couple thousand votes. This is a GOP flip opportunity.

LD-17

Democratic challenger Kevin Volk maintains a sizable, nearly 5,000-vote lead over GOP Rep. Rachel Jones. Republican Rep. Cory McGarr is the odd man out in 3rd place. Dems look to gain a seat here. 

LD-23

Rep. Michele Peña (R) has added to her lead over Rep. Mariana Sandoval (D) in what would be a big hold for the GOP. Democrat Matias Rosales is in 3rd place.