Veridus Advisory: Arizona General Election 2024 Update #3

Dear Clients:

Arizona’s race for U.S. Senate between U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego and Kari Lake has tightened significantly as a slew of GOP-trending ballots were processed and counted over the past 24 hours. 

That’s not all. Congressman David Schweikert has pulled away from Democratic challenger Amish Shah in CD-1, and Congressman Juan Ciscomani has opened a tiny lead over Democrat Kirsten Engel in southern Arizona’s CD-6. Meanwhile, a slew of legislative races are tilting rightward, giving the AZGOP visions of a stronger majority in both chambers. A 1-seat Republican majority in the House appears headed for an increase to 34-26 (or potentially even 35-25), while the GOP looks to boost its 1-seat Senate advantage from 16-14 to 17-13.

Will the Republican gains hold? That’s the question we can’t answer at this hour, with over 600,000 ballots still left to process and tabulate statewide.

This is what we know (all results are as of 7:15 p.m. MST Friday):

Federal Races

President:

Donald Trump has expanded his lead over Vice President Kamala Harris to over 6 points. 

U.S. Senate:

Republican Kari Lake has significantly eroded Democrat Ruben Gallego’s lead, which now stands at a little over 33,000 votes.This will go down to the wire.

CD-1: 

GOP Congressman David Schweikert has grown his lead over Democrat Amish Shah to nearly 5 points. It’s over.

CD-6: 

One of the nation’s closest congressional races. Rep. Ciscomani and Engel have swapped the lead multiple times in recent days, but the GOP incumbent is clinging to a lead of about 1,500 votes at this hour. One note: Cochise County vote-counting is delayed by a broken tabulator, so it will be a couple days before GOP-heavy ballots from that county begin to flow into the CD-6 vote totals.

Legislative Races

Arizona Senate:

LD-2 

GOP Sen. Shawnna Bolick has expanded her lead over Democrat Rep. Judy Schwiebert, likely securing re-election. 

LD-4

One of Tuesday’s upsets. Republican challenger Carine Werner now comfortably leads Sen. Christine Marsh (D) by over 4,700 votes in a race that preserves the GOP Senate majority.

LD-9 

Democratic Sen. Eva Burch leads Republican Robert Scantlebury by over 1,000 votes, but this race could still go either way.

LD-17

Democrat John McLean leads Republican Vince Leach by just over 500 votes. This would be a Dem pickup.

LD-23

Democratic Sen. Brian Fernandez still leads Republican Michelle Altherr by just over 1,000 votes. It’s a seat Republicans thought they could flip.

Arizona House of Representatives (top two):

LD-2

Democrat Stephanie Simacek has slipped to 2nd place, behind GOP Rep. Justin Wilmeth. But the real race is between Simacek and Republican Ari Daniel Bradshaw, who trails by only 34 votes. If Republicans gain another seat, this is a likely possibility.

LD-4

GOP Rep. Matt Gress remains in 1st place. Fellow Republican Pamela Carter has climbed into 2nd, and now leads Democrat Kelli Butler by a little over 2,000 votes.

LD-9

Democratic Rep. Lorena Austin remains in 1st place, but seatmate Seth Blattman has now slipped to 4th. In his place, Republican Kylie Barber is currently in line for the 2nd House seat, and leads fellow Republican Mary Ann Mendoza. It’s a GOP flip opportunity, but Rep. Blattman is still less than 200 votes behind.

LD-13

Republicans Jeff Weninger and Rep. Julie Willoughby have reclaimed the top spots in this swing district, and have a steady lead over Democrats Brandy Reese and Nicholas Gonzales.

LD-17

Democratic challenger Kevin Volk maintains a comfortable lead over GOP Rep. Rachel Jones. Republican Rep. Cory McGarr is the odd man out in 3rd place as Dems look to gain a seat here. 

LD-23

Rep. Michele Peña (R) leads Rep. Mariana Sandoval (D) by over 2,600 votes. Democrat Matias Rosales is in 3rd place.